The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has forecast that economic growth across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) will slow to 4.7% in 2026, down from 5.2% in 2025, before recovering slightly to 4.8% in 2027. The slowdown is attributed to higher energy costs, trade disruptions, and weaker investment linked to conflict in the Middle East, alongside fiscal vulnerabilities, commodity price volatility, and renewed inflationary pressures.
In Benin, growth is expected to ease to 7.0% in 2026 from 8.1% in 2025, supported by investment and infrastructure spending but challenged by rising input costs and security risks. Côte d’Ivoire will see growth of 6.1% in 2026, driven by agriculture and exports, though declining cocoa prices could weigh on performance. Kenya’s economy is forecast to remain steady at 4.6% in 2026, with construction and services offsetting weaker agriculture, but fiscal pressures and political uncertainty ahead of elections remain risks.
Nigeria is projected to grow 4.1% in 2026, supported by stable oil production and strong services, though inflation has risen to 15.4% and debt servicing continues to absorb most federal revenues. Senegal, meanwhile, faces a sharp slowdown to 2.5% in 2026, following strong hydrocarbon-driven growth in 2025, with elevated debt and refinancing risks weighing heavily on the outlook.
The EBRD noted that while commodity output and investment will continue to support near-term growth, resilience across SSA economies remains uneven. Structural reforms, stronger fiscal management, and infrastructure investment will be critical to sustaining growth and mitigating external shocks.
