Brazzaville — May 28, 2026 — The African Development Bank (AfDB) projects Africa’s economic growth to slow modestly to 4.2 percent in 2026, before rebounding to 4.4 percent in 2027, in line with the level recorded in 2025. The forecast was released in the African Economic Outlook 2026 during the Bank’s annual meetings.
The slowdown is attributed to the impact of the Middle East conflict, which has disrupted global supply chains and driven up energy and fertilizer prices. The AfDB noted that the extent of the shock will depend on how long disruptions persist and their effect on inflation and macroeconomic stability.
Regional Growth Trends East Africa is expected to remain the fastest‑growing region, though its pace will ease from 6.6 percent in 2025 to 5.9 percent in 2026 due to logistics challenges and higher energy costs. West Africa should maintain growth around 4.7 percent, supported by agriculture and infrastructure investment. North Africa’s growth is forecast to slow to 4 percent, while Central Africa is projected at 3.8 percent, buoyed by commodity prices. Southern Africa will continue to lag, with growth limited to 2.1 percent.
Inflation and Fiscal Outlook Average inflation across Africa is expected to reach 10.4 percent in 2026, down from 13.7 percent in 2025, but still driven by elevated oil and gas prices. Fiscal deficits are projected to narrow slightly to 4.8 percent of GDP, while external balances may stabilize temporarily before renewed pressure from rising energy and fertilizer costs.
Policy Recommendations The AfDB urged governments to strengthen coordination between monetary and fiscal policy, avoid broad fuel subsidies, and accelerate investment in renewable energy, regional infrastructure, and industrial transformation. The Bank also emphasized deeper implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and stronger domestic resource mobilization to enhance economic sovereignty.
The AfDB’s projections align closely with those of UNCTAD, which expects Africa’s economy to grow by 4 percent in 2026 and 4.1 percent in 2027, supported by improved macroeconomic stability, higher investment, and stronger domestic demand.
