The United Nations is preparing to mobilise up to $100 million through its Central Emergency Response Fund to help vulnerable countries take early action against the expected impacts of El Niño.
More than $20 million has already been allocated for anticipatory measures in six countries as forecasts indicate that El Niño conditions could strengthen during 2026. The climate phenomenon may bring extreme heat, drought, heavy rainfall and flooding to several regions.
The funding will help humanitarian organisations use climate forecasts to protect vulnerable communities before disasters cause major crop losses, water shortages, displacement and infrastructure damage.
UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Tom Fletcher said early and flexible financing is more effective and less expensive than waiting until a disaster has already affected communities.
East Africa and parts of Asia are among the regions facing the greatest risks. Many countries remain vulnerable after previous climate shocks damaged agricultural production, reduced rural incomes and increased food insecurity.
In Somalia, nearly 4.8 million people already require humanitarian assistance following repeated droughts and displacement. Forecasts indicate a 60 per cent probability of above-normal rainfall in parts of the country, raising concerns about flooding.
El Niño-related floods destroyed almost 13,000 metric tonnes of crops in Somalia in 2023. Humanitarian organisations warn that a similar event could now have more serious consequences because communities have been weakened by drought and declining aid.
Kenya faces an estimated 80 to 82 per cent probability that El Niño conditions will continue through the end of 2026. Authorities are preparing for an increased risk of floods and landslides.
Uganda could also experience flooding, displacement and outbreaks of waterborne diseases. In Asia, Pakistan may face higher temperatures and reduced rainfall, while Bangladesh and Afghanistan remain exposed to severe flooding.
The UN’s anticipatory approach could finance early-warning systems, emergency cash transfers, improved water access, livestock protection and other measures designed to reduce humanitarian losses before extreme weather strikes.
The initiative represents a shift from responding after disasters to acting on reliable forecasts. Early intervention can protect livelihoods, reduce emergency costs and help communities recover more quickly.
Humanitarian agencies are calling for sustained international financing to ensure that countries can prepare for El Niño and protect people facing increasingly frequent climate-related emergencies.
