Astana — June 3, 2026 — The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has projected that Central Asia and Mongolia will record the highest growth rates among its regions in 2026 and 2027. According to the latest Regional Economic Prospects report, economies in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are expected to grow by 5.6% in 2026, moderating slightly to 5.3% in 2027.
Resilient domestic consumption and investment continue to drive growth, with services, construction, and manufacturing emerging as key contributors. However, risks have intensified due to energy price volatility, supply-chain disruptions, sanctions, and slower growth in Russia and China, the region’s largest trading partners.
In Kazakhstan, GDP growth is forecast to moderate to 4.7% in 2026, reflecting contractions in the extractive industry after pipeline disruptions, though investment in manufacturing and energy supply remains strong. The Kyrgyz Republic is expected to grow 8.7% in 2026, supported by infrastructure and housing investment, but faces risks from new EU sanctions and higher energy costs.
Mongolia’s economy is projected to expand by 5.5% in 2026, driven by mining and agriculture, though vulnerable to China’s slowdown and rising fuel prices. Tajikistan is forecast to grow 7.9% in 2026, supported by trade, manufacturing, and hydropower investment, with remittance dependence on Russia remaining a key risk. Turkmenistan is expected to grow 6.3% in 2026, boosted by gas field expansion, though heavily reliant on Chinese demand. Uzbekistan will see growth of 6.5% in 2026, supported by remittances, wage growth, and privatization reforms, though exposed to regional inflationary pressures.
The EBRD emphasized that while growth prospects remain robust, resilience will depend on the pace of domestic reforms and diversification efforts to mitigate external shocks. Central Asia and Mongolia’s strong performance highlights their role as engines of growth within the EBRD’s regions, even amid global uncertainty.
