The International Fund for Agricultural Development has raised alarm over growing risks to global food security, warning that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is severely disrupting rural supply chains and exposing deep vulnerabilities in the global food system. In a new position paper presented during the World Bank Group–IMF Spring Meetings, IFAD highlighted how smallholder farmers—who produce about one-third of the world’s food—are already bearing the brunt of these shocks.
According to IFAD President Alvaro Lario, the crisis has triggered both supply-side disruptions, such as fertilizer shortages, and demand-side pressures driven by rising fuel and food prices. These combined effects are worsening global food insecurity. Key shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, have faced disruptions, delaying fertilizer and fuel deliveries and raising costs for farmers worldwide at a critical time during planting seasons across Africa, Asia, and Latin America.
At the local level, the impact is already visible. In countries like Sri Lanka, fuel shortages are hampering irrigation and harvesting, while fertilizer prices have surged dramatically. In Kenya, livestock exports to Middle Eastern markets have dropped sharply, affecting both international trade and domestic price stability. Meanwhile, in Indonesia, rising fuel costs are increasing production expenses for farmers and fishers, reducing incomes and driving up food prices. Countries such as Lebanon are experiencing compounded challenges, with declining harvests, damaged agricultural infrastructure, and soaring input costs.
The crisis has also intensified existing vulnerabilities in Sudan, where reliance on imported fertilizers and wheat makes the country particularly exposed to global price shocks. IFAD emphasized that such external disruptions are consistently absorbed at the household level, where rural communities have the least capacity to cope.
To address these challenges, IFAD is promoting practical, locally adapted solutions. These include developing alternative fertilizers to reduce dependence on imports, supporting agroecological practices, and deploying digital tools that help farmers optimize input use and improve productivity. Examples from projects in countries like Malawi show how locally blended fertilizers and improved farming techniques can enhance resilience and maintain yields even during supply disruptions.
The organization stressed that strengthening resilience at the “first mile” of food systems—where production begins—is essential to safeguarding global food security. IFAD is also reactivating its Crisis Response Initiative and emergency mechanisms to deliver rapid support to vulnerable communities while protecting long-term development gains.
Ultimately, IFAD underscored that investing in resilient rural economies is not optional but a strategic necessity. As global crises become more frequent and interconnected, building stronger, more adaptive food systems will be critical to ensuring stability, protecting livelihoods, and preventing future food shocks from escalating into widespread crises.
