London — June 4, 2026 — New research led by Heriot-Watt University has mapped a plausible scenario for offshore wind development in the North Sea, revealing that if all current political commitments are met, wind farms could occupy around 11% of the basin by 2050.
The study, part of a collaboration with the University of Hull and the University of St Andrews, assessed operational projects and national development pipelines across seven countries with North Sea waters: the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Norway, and France. Researchers estimate that commitments imply a total of 19,400 turbines by 2050, including those already built.
By 2030, the UK is projected to remain the largest offshore wind nation with about 4,200 turbines, followed by Germany (2,700) and the Netherlands (1,700). By 2050, the UK could host 6,300 turbines, Germany 4,300, and the Netherlands just over 4,200. Spatially, the Netherlands is expected to be the most intensively used zone, with wind farms covering 19% of its waters, followed by Belgium (18%) and Denmark (15%).
Dr Simon Waldman, Assistant Professor at Heriot-Watt, explained: “Our scenario shows the scale that we would be looking at if every country were to build the amount of offshore wind capacity that they have promised. It’s important to be clear that this isn’t a prediction, but a projection based on current ambitions.”
The research highlights practical challenges, including the impact of atmospheric wakes from large wind farms, which can stretch over 40 kilometres, affecting neighbouring projects and ecosystems. It also notes implications for marine industries such as fishing, which depend on seabed access.
Professor Rodney Forster of the Hull Marine Laboratory added: “The North Sea supports fragile ecosystems and communities dependent on fishing and energy industries. As offshore wind expands, we need to understand possible impacts and explore opportunities such as aquaculture alongside wind farms.”
Taken together, the findings underscore the scale of offshore wind’s role in Europe’s energy transition and the importance of balancing renewable energy growth with ecological and community considerations.
