The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (Food and Agriculture Organization) has warned that disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a far-reaching global agrifood crisis, potentially pushing the world into a severe food price shock within the next six to twelve months if preventive action is not taken immediately.
According to FAO, the issue goes far beyond a temporary shipping bottleneck. A prolonged closure or sustained instability in this strategic maritime corridor would set off a chain reaction across global food systems, beginning with higher energy prices and rapidly spreading into fertilizer shortages, reduced agricultural productivity, and ultimately steep increases in food costs worldwide. Early indicators of this trend are already visible in rising global food price indices driven by energy market volatility and conflict-related disruptions.
The organization warns that the crisis would unfold in stages, with rising transport and input costs first affecting farmers’ production decisions, followed by reduced yields, tightening global commodity supplies, and eventual food inflation affecting consumers across both developed and developing economies. The impact would be amplified if combined with climate-related shocks such as El Niño, which could further disrupt rainfall patterns and agricultural output in key producing regions.
FAO also highlights the risk that major exporters may impose trade restrictions in response to shortages, a move that could deepen global price spikes and severely undermine food access for import-dependent countries. Humanitarian food supplies are considered especially vulnerable under such conditions, raising concerns about food security in already fragile regions.
To reduce the risk of escalation, FAO urges immediate coordinated action at the international level. In the short term, it recommends securing alternative transport corridors, avoiding export bans on food and agricultural inputs, and ensuring that humanitarian food shipments are exempt from trade restrictions. It also calls for expanded targeted social protection systems to shield vulnerable populations from rising food costs, while cautioning against broad subsidies that strain public finances without efficiently reaching those most in need.
In the medium term, FAO emphasizes the need to expand emergency agricultural financing, strengthen food import support mechanisms, and improve digital systems for farmer identification and assistance delivery. It also recommends integrating smallholder farmers into cooperatives and value-chain networks to improve access to credit and markets, while encouraging coordinated approaches between governments and agribusinesses to stabilize supply chains.
Longer-term recommendations focus on structural reforms to reduce global vulnerability to chokepoints. These include diversifying transport routes, expanding regional food storage and reserve systems, improving irrigation and energy efficiency in agriculture, and investing in precision farming technologies. FAO also highlights the importance of early warning systems, agricultural insurance, and climate-resilient planning to help countries respond proactively to future shocks.
The organization concludes that the next few months will be critical. Decisions taken now by governments, farmers, and international institutions will determine whether the world experiences a manageable disruption or a severe global food crisis affecting billions of people.
