The ongoing geopolitical conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran is disrupting global fertiliser trade flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for ammonia, urea, and other essential agricultural inputs. These disruptions are expected to significantly affect African farmers, who depend heavily on imported fertilisers to sustain food production across sub-Saharan Africa.
The instability in global shipping routes is driving up fertiliser prices and creating uncertainty in supply chains, with even minor risks leading to delays and inflationary pressures in global food markets. Africa is especially vulnerable, as around 80% of its fertiliser is imported, often at higher costs due to logistics and financing challenges, making farmers highly exposed to global market shocks.
Smallholder farmers, who produce nearly 70% of food in sub-Saharan Africa, are particularly affected due to limited access to affordable fertilisers and rising input costs. According to FAO estimates, even a small reduction in fertiliser availability could significantly reduce staple crop production and increase food inflation across the continent.
In response, the African Development Bank Group has introduced initiatives such as the African Emergency Food Production Facility, which has supported millions of farmers with climate-smart inputs and fertilisers, helping boost food production and strengthen resilience. The programme is also shifting toward long-term food sovereignty by scaling up agricultural support systems across African countries.
To address ongoing risks, experts emphasize the need for stronger market intelligence systems to track fertiliser flows and prices in real time, enabling better anticipation of supply disruptions. Improved data sharing and regional coordination are seen as critical to reducing vulnerability to global shocks.
Another key recommendation is regional cooperation in fertiliser procurement and the creation of buffer stocks. By pooling demand and working with major producers, African countries can stabilize prices and reduce exposure to export restrictions and shipping disruptions.
Expanding domestic fertiliser production is also seen as essential, with countries like Morocco, Nigeria, Kenya, and Ethiopia increasing capacity. However, further investment in infrastructure and public-private partnerships is needed to meet growing demand and reduce import dependency.
Protecting smallholder farmers from price volatility through targeted subsidies, digital voucher systems, and improved access to credit is highlighted as another important measure. These interventions can help ensure that global price shocks do not disproportionately affect the most vulnerable farmers.
Finally, initiatives such as the Africa Fertiliser and Soil Health Initiative aim to improve soil productivity, increase fertiliser use, and restore degraded land over the next decade. Combined with digital agriculture programmes and international partnerships, these efforts are intended to strengthen Africa’s long-term food security and resilience.
Overall, the crisis underscores how global geopolitical tensions can directly impact food systems in Africa, reinforcing the need for coordinated action among governments, regional bodies, and development partners to secure fertiliser supply chains and build agricultural sovereignty.
