Falling fertility rates and ageing populations are often framed as looming economic crises, but a senior United Nations economist argues that such fears may be overstated. Around the world, many people say they want two or more children, yet a growing number are having only one or none. According to the latest State of World Population report by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), nearly one in five adults believe they will not be able to have their desired number of children due to economic insecurity, inequality, and limited support systems.
Michael Herrmann, an economist and demographer with UNFPA, emphasizes that demographic change should not be seen as a crisis but as a reality that requires thoughtful planning and adaptation. He highlights the concept of “demographic resilience,” which encourages societies to anticipate population shifts, adjust institutions, and make better use of human potential. This approach applies to both developing and developed countries, regardless of whether their populations are growing, shrinking, or ageing.
While some countries benefit from a “demographic dividend” when a larger working-age population boosts growth, others can achieve a “second dividend” by investing in education, healthcare, skills, and technology to enhance productivity. However, one visible consequence of ageing populations is a shrinking workforce. Governments often respond by raising retirement ages, but Herrmann notes that this approach can be too simplistic. More flexible work options for older adults, including part-time roles, can help maintain workforce participation while easing pressure on pension systems.
Efforts to increase birth rates through financial incentives such as cash bonuses or tax breaks have shown limited and short-term results. According to Herrmann, such measures may influence the timing of childbirth but rarely affect the decision to have children. Early findings from UNFPA’s Youth Reproductive Choices Survey, conducted in 70 countries, reveal that people face a combination of economic and social barriers, including high housing and childcare costs, job insecurity, and concerns about political instability and climate change. Unequal gender roles, with women carrying the majority of unpaid care work, also play a significant role.
Policies driven by fears of population decline can sometimes undermine fundamental rights, particularly for women. Measures such as fertility targets or restrictions on reproductive healthcare risk limiting personal choice. Instead, a rights-based approach focuses on removing barriers that prevent individuals from having the number of children they want. This includes providing affordable housing, accessible childcare, parental leave for both parents, stable employment, and equal pay.
Although ageing populations present challenges for pension systems and healthcare, they do not necessarily lead to economic decline. Increased demand for health and long-term care services can generate employment, while older individuals continue to contribute through caregiving and community engagement. Addressing a smaller labour force requires inclusive policies that bring more women, migrants, young people, and older workers into employment, alongside investments in productivity-enhancing sectors such as education, technology, and infrastructure.
Migration also plays a complex role in demographic trends. In some regions, population decline is driven more by emigration than low birth rates, while countries like Germany have offset declines through immigration. However, migration is not a simple solution. Without proper integration measures such as language training, recognition of qualifications, and access to jobs, migrants may remain excluded from the workforce.
Ultimately, Herrmann stresses that the key to managing demographic change lies in understanding people’s needs rather than reacting with panic. If individuals are having fewer children than they desire, the solution is not pressure or coercion but policies that expand choices and address real-life challenges. With the right approach, demographic shifts can be managed in a way that promotes fairness, stability, and long-term economic resilience.
