The European Investment Bank (EIB) hosted a seminar focused on the Global Emerging Markets Risk Database (GEMs), highlighting its role in improving investment decision-making and strengthening confidence in emerging markets across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The event brought together representatives from banks, investment funds, equity firms, microfinance institutions, government agencies, and development organizations to discuss credit risk trends and investment opportunities in emerging economies.
The GEMs database is the world’s largest credit risk database dedicated to emerging markets and developing economies. Jointly led by the EIB and the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the GEMs Consortium combines data and investment experience from multilateral development banks and development finance institutions accumulated over four decades.
According to the EIB, the database provides transparent and evidence-based statistics that help address long-standing assumptions and perceptions regarding investment risks in emerging markets. The information is intended to support more informed investment decisions and improve analytical frameworks used by financial institutions and investors.
During the seminar, EIB officials noted that the Middle East and North Africa region has historically faced geopolitical challenges that often shape perceptions of investment risk. However, the GEMs data indicates that some markets in the region may present lower risks than commonly assumed.
Statistics presented at the event showed that between 1984 and 2024, the average default rate for private sector lending in the MENA region stood at 3.39 percent, slightly below the global average of 3.54 percent. In public sector lending, the region recorded an average default rate of 1.89 percent, compared with the global average of 2.61 percent.
Recovery rates for investments in the region were also highlighted during the discussions. Private sector lending in MENA demonstrated a recovery rate of 71.7 percent, close to the global average of 72.9 percent. Public sector lending in the region recorded the highest recovery rate globally at 93.5 percent.
EIB representatives emphasized that the GEMs statistics suggest investment opportunities in parts of the MENA region may be more resilient than widely perceived, particularly when investments are made alongside multilateral development banks and development finance institutions.
The seminar also explored how GEMs supports broader global financial reforms. The G20-mandated panel reviewing capital adequacy frameworks for international financial institutions has recognized the database as an important tool for strengthening analytical foundations and informing future policy reforms related to investment risk assessment.
Officials involved in the GEMs initiative stressed that the data should be considered alongside current macroeconomic conditions and regional economic developments when assessing investment opportunities and risk profiles.
The GEMs statistics are publicly accessible through the official GEMs platform as well as financial information services including Bloomberg terminals and the World Bank Data360 platform. According to the EIB, expanding access to this information is intended to improve transparency, encourage investment, and support sustainable financing flows into emerging markets and developing economies.
