The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that global acute food insecurity could rise to record levels in 2026 if the escalation in the Middle East continues to disrupt the world economy. According to WFP’s latest analysis, nearly 45 million additional people could fall into acute hunger this year if the conflict persists through mid-year and oil prices remain above USD 100 per barrel. This would add to the 318 million people already facing food insecurity worldwide, bringing global hunger close to the record levels seen at the start of the Ukraine war in 2022.
WFP noted that when the Ukraine war triggered a global cost-of-living crisis, the number of food-insecure people rose to 349 million. Although the current conflict is centered in a global energy hub rather than a major grain-producing region, the potential consequences are similarly severe because food and energy markets are closely linked. Rising fuel and fertilizer costs can quickly drive up food prices, leaving already vulnerable families unable to afford staple foods for prolonged periods.
The organization warned that disruptions in key shipping routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, are already increasing pressure on global supply chains. These disruptions are pushing up the costs of energy, transport, and agricultural inputs, amplifying food insecurity far beyond the Middle East itself. WFP stressed that the ripple effects of the crisis will be felt most strongly by the world’s poorest and most import-dependent countries.
Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia are projected to face the steepest rise in hunger risk due to their heavy dependence on food and fuel imports. WFP estimates that food insecurity could increase by 21 percent in West and Central Africa, 17 percent in East and Southern Africa, and 24 percent in Asia. Countries such as Sudan, which imports around 80 percent of its wheat, and Somalia, where prices of essential commodities have reportedly risen by at least 20 percent since the conflict began, are especially vulnerable because they are already facing severe food insecurity and climate-related pressures.
WFP also emphasized that this worsening crisis comes at a time of severe funding shortfalls, which have already forced the agency to scale back programmes across multiple regions. Without additional humanitarian resources to match rising needs, the agency warned that the consequences could be catastrophic for countries already on the brink of famine. The situation highlights how prolonged geopolitical conflict can rapidly translate into a global hunger emergency, especially for communities that are already struggling to meet their most basic food needs.
