Global seaborne trade volumes are projected to increase by just 0.5 per cent in 2025, marking the slowest growth in years, according to UNCTAD’s Review of Maritime Transport 2025, launched in Geneva. This slowdown reflects the impact of geopolitical tensions, new trade barriers, and climate pressures, which are reshaping shipping routes, increasing costs, and exposing vulnerabilities in the global economy. UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan emphasized that the ongoing transitions to zero-carbon shipping, digital systems, and new trade routes must be inclusive and resilient, empowering stakeholders rather than deepening vulnerabilities.
Shipping, which handles over 80 per cent of global merchandise trade, is being affected by route disruptions caused by crises in the Red Sea and tensions near the Strait of Hormuz. These disruptions have forced ships onto longer routes, causing delays and higher costs. UNCTAD warned that vulnerable economies, including small island developing states, least developed countries, and net food-importing nations, are bearing the heaviest burden, as rising freight rates translate into costlier imports and heightened food insecurity.
Global ports are under increasing pressure from congestion, longer waiting times, and the need to modernize. Investments in digital systems, such as maritime single windows and port community platforms, are essential to reduce costs and delays. However, many developing countries lag in digital adoption, and growing cyber threats make cybersecurity a critical priority for maritime logistics.
The shipping industry’s greenhouse gas emissions rose by five per cent in 2024, yet only eight per cent of the global fleet is equipped to use alternative fuels. The International Maritime Organization is set to consider a Net-Zero Framework in October, including global fuel standards and carbon pricing. UNCTAD highlights the importance of regulatory clarity, fleet renewal, and fuel infrastructure to reduce emissions effectively.
The human dimension of shipping remains critical. Cases of seafarer abandonment reached record levels in 2024, leaving crews stranded without pay or support. Amendments to the Maritime Labour Convention in 2027 will strengthen rights to repatriation and shore leave, but effective enforcement is necessary.
UNCTAD’s review calls for coordinated action by governments and industry, including stable trade policies to restore confidence, investment in sustainable and resilient port and shipping infrastructure, accelerated digitalization and cybersecurity measures, fleet renewal and cleaner fuels, and support for vulnerable economies facing higher costs. Grynspan stressed that persistent high transport costs disproportionately affect developing countries and that maritime transport must be resilient, inclusive, and sustainable to navigate the challenges ahead.
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