Kyiv — June 3, 2026 — Ukraine’s economy continues to show resilience despite the ongoing war, with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasting 2.2% growth in 2026, rising to 4.0% in 2027 if reconstruction begins. The latest Regional Economic Prospects report highlights that while wartime pressures weigh heavily on output, macroeconomic stability is being maintained thanks to substantial external financing.
Real GDP growth slowed to 1.8% in 2025, constrained by labour shortages and repeated disruptions to electricity supply and logistics caused by targeted military attacks. Inflation, which had eased to 7.4% in January 2026, is rising again as global energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict add new pressures for households and businesses.
Fiscal support remains critical. Ukraine’s fiscal deficit, excluding grants, reached 23.6% of GDP in 2025 and is projected at 19.3% in 2026, reflecting high defence and social spending. These needs are largely financed through external official support, with more than €110 billion committed for 2026–27 to contain short-term risks.
The EBRD, Ukraine’s largest institutional investor, has significantly increased its support since the full-scale war began in 2022, making nearly €10 billion available to bolster energy security, infrastructure, food supply, trade, and the private sector. “While the war continues to impose substantial human and economic costs, Ukraine’s authorities, businesses and partners have demonstrated strong capacity to stabilise the economy under unprecedented conditions,” the report noted.
The outlook remains highly dependent on the course of the war and the pace of reconstruction. If hostilities ease, Ukraine could see stronger growth momentum in 2027, driven by rebuilding efforts and renewed investment
