Istanbul — June 3, 2026 — The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has lowered its forecast for Türkiye’s economy, projecting growth of 3.5% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027, both revised down from earlier estimates. The adjustment reflects less favourable external conditions, including rising energy imports, persistent inflationary pressures, and potential spillovers from the Middle East conflict.
The latest Regional Economic Prospects report highlights that while Türkiye faces challenges from higher energy costs, capital outflows, weaker tourism receipts, and disruptions to industrial supply chains, the country’s fiscal and external buffers remain strong enough to absorb shocks. This resilience underscores Türkiye’s ability to maintain stability even in a volatile global environment.
Across the wider EBRD regions, growth is expected to slow from 3.4% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, before recovering to 3.6% in 2027, marking a downward revision compared with February forecasts.
The EBRD remains a major investor in Türkiye, with cumulative investments exceeding €24 billion and a current portfolio of €8.5 billion, focusing on energy security, infrastructure, and private sector development.
