The 2026 Industry Outlook from the Ghana Association of Banks (GAB) highlights that Ghana’s banking sector continues to face significant external risks, particularly from global trade disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and regional insecurity. While domestic macroeconomic conditions have shown signs of stabilisation, vulnerabilities originating outside the country remain substantial, affecting financial institutions’ risk appetite, credit conditions, and operating costs.
External shocks such as shifting capital flows, energy price volatility, and geopolitical fragmentation are cited as persistent sources of vulnerability. Banks remain exposed to sovereign risks, non-performing loans, cyber threats, and climate-related shocks, all of which influence balance sheets and operational strategies.
Global trade disruptions are a key concern, with Suez Canal traffic reported at approximately 60 percent below pre-crisis levels, reflecting caution among shipping operators. For Ghanaian banks, this translates into uncertainty in trade finance, logistics-linked lending, and energy-related exposures. Any escalation in regional security issues could exacerbate supply-chain bottlenecks and amplify volatility in energy and trade markets.
Food and energy price pressures continue to affect banks’ asset quality. The ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict sustains elevated global food and energy costs, contributing to persistent food inflation in Ghana, estimated at 9 to 10 percent in late 2025. Higher food prices weaken household purchasing power and increase credit risk in retail, agribusiness, and SME portfolios.
Regional instability, particularly in the Sahel, poses additional risks. Insecurity in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger has spillover effects on Ghana, especially along northern borders, increasing cross-border movements, logistical pressures, and security-related strains. Although large-scale attacks have not occurred domestically, these tensions affect economic sentiment and operational costs.
Border-area incidents, ethnic tensions in areas such as Bawku, and refugee inflows of over 110,000 across coastal states have begun to dampen investor confidence. These pressures could raise insurance and transport costs along trade corridors, reduce investment appetite in sectors like mining and logistics, and elevate credit risks in regions exposed to cross-border trade.
The Outlook warns that without effective containment of these risks, Ghana’s projected growth of over 4 percent in 2026 could be undermined. Rising non-performing loans, higher operating costs, and weaker borrower performance may negatively impact banks’ profitability and lending capacity, emphasizing the need for vigilant risk management in the sector.
