Geneva — June 2, 2026 — The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a stark warning that El Niño conditions will drive extreme weather events over the next few months, with above‑average global temperatures expected until at least August.
The WMO update indicates an 80% likelihood of El Niño during June–August and a 90% probability of continuation until November. Unusually warm waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean are fueling the phenomenon, which is set to alter rainfall and hurricane patterns worldwide.
Health and environmental risks are expected to rise sharply. Regions such as the Amazon may face severe drought, while Australia is bracing for heightened wildfire risks due to reduced water availability and rising temperatures. South Asia is forecast to receive below‑average monsoon rainfall, threatening agricultural economies across the region.
WMO Secretary‑General Celeste Saulo emphasized that El Niño is a major driver of global climate extremes. “A warmer ocean adds heat and moisture to the climate system, worsening heatwaves and heavy rainfall,” she said. UN Secretary‑General António Guterres added that the world must treat El Niño as an urgent climate warning, noting that impacts will cross borders with devastating speed.
The WMO highlighted that early warning systems are critical to mitigating risks. Currently, 128 countries have multi‑hazard systems in place, but gaps remain. Saulo urged governments to invest in forecasting and preparedness to save lives and reduce economic losses.
Climate experts also noted that while climate change does not increase the frequency of El Niño events, it amplifies their impacts by providing more energy and moisture to fuel extreme weather. The most recent El Niño in 2023–24 was among the strongest on record and contributed to record global temperatures in 2024.
As the world heads into the northern hemisphere’s summer, the WMO will continue monitoring conditions closely, providing seasonal forecasts to guide governments, humanitarian agencies, and climate‑sensitive sectors.
