Warsaw — June 3, 2026 — The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects Poland’s economy to expand by 3.5% in 2026, before moderating to 2.8% in 2027, according to its latest Regional Economic Prospects report. The outlook has been revised down by 0.2 percentage points compared with February 2026, reflecting global headwinds including higher energy prices and weaker external demand.
Following strong growth of 3.6% in 2025, Poland’s economy remains supported by resilient domestic demand and EU-backed investment. Peak absorption of Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) funds ahead of the August deadline, alongside rising defence spending projected at 4.8% of GDP, will bolster activity. Poland is also set to benefit from allocations under the EU Security Action for Europe (SAFE) defence loan instrument, reinforcing investment momentum.
However, growth momentum slowed in early 2026 as energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict weighed on output. Rising costs, global trade tensions, and weaker demand from Germany, Poland’s largest trading partner, continue to constrain the outlook. Fiscal challenges also persist, with the general government deficit projected at 6.8% of GDP in 2026 and public debt expected to rise from 60% to 65% of GDP, keeping Poland under the EU’s excessive-deficit procedure.
The EBRD noted that regional growth across central Europe and the Baltic states is expected to reach 2.8% in 2026, supported by investment but revised downward due to external shocks. As one of the Bank’s largest investment destinations, Poland has received more than €16.7 billion across 590 projects since 1991, with a focus on the private sector, energy security, and the green transition.
