The latest Emissions Gap Report from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), released ahead of the COP30 climate conference in Belém, Brazil, warns that new national climate pledges have done little to alter the world’s warming trajectory. Nearly ten years after the adoption of the Paris Agreement—which aims to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C, and ideally to 1.5°C—progress remains insufficient. Only 60 countries, representing less than one-third of signatories, submitted updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for the 2035 period by the end of September.
According to UNEP, if countries fully implement their pledges, global temperatures are still projected to rise by 2.3°C to 2.5°C this century, only a slight improvement from last year’s estimates of 2.6°C to 2.8°C. Projections based on current policies remain at around 2.8°C, down from 3.1°C previously. However, UNEP noted that most of this improvement results from methodological adjustments rather than meaningful policy changes. The report concludes that emissions reductions of 35 to 55 per cent below 2019 levels by 2035 are required to align with the 2°C and 1.5°C goals, respectively. Without urgent action, the world is on track to temporarily exceed the 1.5°C threshold—a milestone that will be difficult to reverse.
UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen emphasized that while national plans have made some progress, emissions cuts remain far too slow. She stressed that proven solutions such as renewable energy expansion and methane reduction are available, and called for bold, coordinated action. The report further noted that every fraction of a degree of warming avoided will reduce damage, losses, and health impacts—particularly for vulnerable populations.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres echoed the urgency, describing the report as “clear and uncompromising.” He urged nations to act immediately to limit temperature overshoot, peak emissions, and accelerate the global shift from fossil fuels to renewables. Guterres highlighted that clean energy is now the most affordable and fastest-growing source of power and urged leaders to “seize this moment” to scale up renewable investments. He concluded that the path to limiting warming to 1.5°C remains narrow but still achievable if the world accelerates collective action now.
