A powerful El Niño weather event could intensify flooding across East Africa during the upcoming rainy season, potentially forcing up to three million people from their homes by the end of 2026, according to a new assessment by the Danish Refugee Council (DRC).
The displacement outlook examines Somalia, Kenya, South Sudan and Uganda under three possible scenarios, ranging from 750,000 displaced people in a less severe situation to as many as three million in the worst-case scenario. Flooding could destroy homes, livelihoods and essential community support systems.
Somalia and Kenya are expected to face the largest share of potential displacement. Under the most severe scenario, Somalia could account for around 60% of displacement while Kenya could account for another 33%.
The projected impact could surpass the devastating 2023 floods, which displaced more than two million people across the region. Communities that are still recovering from previous climate shocks could face repeated displacement and worsening humanitarian needs.
El Niño is associated with significant changes in global weather patterns, including increased risks of floods, droughts and storms. Poorer communities are particularly vulnerable because climate shocks can lead to crop losses, higher food prices and increased hunger.
Refugees and internally displaced people face heightened risks because they often have fewer resources to recover from disasters. The Danish Refugee Council is urging governments and humanitarian organizations to act before flooding reaches its peak by using early-warning systems and anticipatory assistance.
The organization is working to combine weather forecasts and displacement modeling with measures such as early cash assistance, protection of water infrastructure and pre-positioning of emergency shelter supplies.
The DRC is also calling for refugees, internally displaced people and host communities to be included in national disaster preparedness and early-warning systems. It says timely funding for anticipatory action could help protect vulnerable communities before severe weather strikes.
With the rainy season approaching, humanitarian agencies warn that early action will be critical to reducing loss of life, protecting livelihoods and preventing repeated climate-related displacement across East Africa.
