June 4, 2026 — Pakistan — Pakistan has long tracked how many children are out of school, but new research shows that aggregate numbers alone fail to guide effective action. With nearly 25 million children aged 5–16 not enrolled, the country has the second largest out-of-school population in the world. Yet policymakers need more than national totals — they need to know where these children are and why they are not in school.
Using satellite imagery, machine learning, and administrative records from over 137,000 public schools and 72,700 private schools, researchers have produced the first community-level map of school accessibility across Pakistan’s four main provinces. The findings reveal that while 51% of the population lives within 20 minutes of a school, 37% of communities have no school nearby at all, highlighting stark access gaps.
Private schools also play a larger role than official statistics suggest. Open-source data identifies 72,700 private schools, enrolling nearly 49% of students nationwide. In cities like Lahore and Karachi, private schools dominate, accounting for more than 80% of enrollment. But in poorer communities, they make up less than 10% of schools, underscoring deep inequalities.
Local dynamics further complicate the picture. Lahore and Faisalabad show similar out-of-school rates, yet access differs dramatically: 70.7% of Lahore’s school-age population has good access, compared to 47.6% in Faisalabad. This contrast illustrates why community-level data is essential for targeted interventions.
The 2022 floods exposed further weaknesses in data systems. Government assessments counted 17,205 schools damaged, but satellite-based estimates revealed 20,914 schools affected, disrupting education for 3.5 million children. In districts like Khairpur Mirs and Jacobabad, out-of-school rates surged to over 80%. Surveys later confirmed that thousands of children had permanently dropped out.
Researchers argue that Pakistan’s education system must close key data gaps: building a credible database of private schools, addressing out-of-school challenges at the community level, and integrating climate risk into infrastructure planning. With better data, policymakers can move beyond aggregate numbers and deliver targeted solutions to ensure every child has access to education.
