Pakistan’s rapid population growth, which continues at more than 2.5 percent annually, is steadily reshaping the country’s agricultural landscape by accelerating the fragmentation of inherited farmland. With no effective legal restrictions on excessive subdivision, agricultural land is being divided among family members generation after generation, leading to a growing number of farms but a sharp decline in average farm size. The 7th Agricultural Census of Pakistan 2024 reflects this trend clearly, showing how landholdings once measured in large units have gradually been reduced to acres and even fractions of an acre, raising serious concerns about the long-term economic viability of millions of tiny farms.
In response to shrinking landholdings, many view high-value horticulture such as fruits, vegetables, flowers, and medicinal plants as a possible way for small farmers to earn better incomes. However, this option remains limited because Pakistan’s domestic market is not large enough to absorb significant increases in production, while export potential is constrained by weak compliance with international sanitary and phytosanitary standards. Even modest increases in cultivated area can therefore trigger oversupply and price crashes. This vulnerability became evident over the past two years when many farmers, discouraged by poor wheat prices, shifted to vegetables and potatoes but suffered heavy losses due to supply-demand imbalances and the closure of the Afghan border. The absence of a strong agro-processing industry has worsened the situation, as surplus produce cannot easily be absorbed through value addition, which could otherwise also create rural employment.
The shrinking size of farms raises an even deeper concern about the future of young people from micro-scale farming families. This issue is particularly serious in light of Pakistan’s weak education system, where a large share of children from rural and landless households remain out of school. For many years, poorly educated and unskilled rural youth could still find seasonal work in villages during the sowing and harvesting of major crops such as wheat, rice, and maize. However, rapid mechanisation has dramatically changed this reality. The increasing use of combine harvesters, rice harvesters, transplanters, maize machinery, drones, and other specialised equipment has improved productivity for farmers but has also reduced the demand for seasonal labourers and daily wage workers, cutting off a traditional source of income for rural households.
Migration to cities has historically offered another path for rural youth, especially through jobs in construction and industry as unskilled workers. Yet recent inconsistent and ineffective government policies have slowed the growth of these sectors and weakened their capacity to generate employment. In some cases, even existing workers are facing layoffs. At the same time, Pakistan adds nearly two million young people to the labour market every year, but the economy lacks the strength to absorb them productively. While some attempt to seek work abroad, poorly educated and unskilled rural youth often do not meet the qualifications needed for overseas employment, leaving them with very limited options.
As a result, a growing portion of Pakistan’s rural population is now caught between shrinking farms, falling rural employment, and weak non-farm job opportunities. This helps explain why the country is experiencing some of its highest unemployment levels in years. In this difficult environment, many rural families are increasingly turning to livestock, especially milk and meat production, as a way to supplement income and provide work for their young family members. Livestock has therefore become an increasingly important part of rural survival and economic adaptation.
This shift is reflected in the sector’s 4.72 percent growth in FY25 and its expanding contribution to agricultural GDP, where livestock now accounts for 63.6 percent, far surpassing the crop sector. Despite this growing importance, livestock continues to receive far less public and policy attention than crops. At the same time, the sector faces several serious challenges, including long-standing government price controls on milk and meat that distort the market, rising input costs, low productivity per animal, poor feed conversion, imports of cheap low-quality dairy substitutes, and restricted export opportunities caused by transboundary animal diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease.
Given these realities, the article argues that government policy must urgently adapt to the ongoing fragmentation of farmland and the rapid rise of livestock-based smallholders. With the right policy support and a more enabling business environment, livestock could become a major driver of economic growth and large-scale employment for illiterate and unskilled rural youth. Strengthening this sector could not only improve rural livelihoods but also help reduce the social risks associated with rising unemployment and growing economic frustration in Pakistan’s countryside.
