Mongolia’s economy is projected to grow by 5.0 percent in 2026, following strong performance in 2025, according to the latest World Bank Mongolia Economic Update. The economy expanded by 6.9 percent in 2025, supported by a rebound in agriculture and strong mining output, particularly copper production at Oyu Tolgoi, which helped offset weaker coal performance. Growth was also supported by robust construction and manufacturing activity, while trade and services showed more moderate gains.
Despite this strong performance, inflation rose to 8.6 percent in 2025 due to higher food and energy prices, alongside strong consumer demand driven by resilient household incomes and export earnings. Looking ahead, medium-term growth is expected to average around 5.5 percent during 2027–28, supported by infrastructure development and sustained domestic demand.
However, the outlook remains uncertain, with risks tilted to the downside. Global trade disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and a prolonged Middle East conflict could weaken export demand, raise costs, and slow economic activity. On the domestic side, increased fiscal spending may support short-term growth but could also widen external imbalances and add inflationary pressure.
The World Bank notes that Mongolia’s economy remains fundamentally resilient but increasingly exposed to external risks. It emphasizes the need for stronger macroeconomic stability, economic diversification, and improved competitiveness to protect households from shocks. The report also highlights the importance of addressing infrastructure gaps, advancing critical mineral development, strengthening climate resilience, and improving urban planning to manage congestion in Ulaanbaatar while supporting more balanced national development.
