New research funded by the Nuffield Foundation warns that the UK government’s reliance on employment growth alone will be insufficient to reduce child poverty unless accompanied by the removal of the two-child limit and the benefit cap. The study, conducted by the London School of Economics (LSE) and the University of Glasgow, finds that even if employment rises from 75% to 80% by 2029/30, only about 100,000 children would be lifted out of poverty. This modest gain would be offset by policies such as the two-child limit and benefit cap, which are projected to push 200,000 more children into poverty, leaving the overall child poverty rate higher at the end of the current Parliament than at its start. Currently, 4.5 million children in the UK live in poverty, most in working households.
The analysis emphasizes that child poverty remains high among working families, with more than 70% of children in poverty now having at least one adult in employment, compared to 49% in 2000/01. Many parents face barriers such as childcare responsibilities, health conditions, or low wages, which limit the effectiveness of work as a route out of poverty. Past evidence shows that social security measures, particularly Child Tax Credit, have been decisive in reducing child poverty, while recent cuts and freezes to family benefits have worsened the situation, even for working families.
The research also highlights the high cost and limited impact of achieving the government’s ambitious employment target. Estimates suggest it could require supporting 2.1 million additional workers, including nearly 600,000 parents, at a cost of around £3 billion annually, excluding additional barriers such as transport and local job availability. Even when parents enter full-time work, families with three or more children often remain in poverty, demonstrating that employment alone cannot sufficiently protect children.
Experts argue that the forthcoming Child Poverty Strategy represents a crucial opportunity to take a multi-pronged approach. The research calls for urgent reforms, including the removal of the two-child limit and benefit cap, restoring the value of child benefits lost over the past 15 years, and ensuring benefits keep pace with inflation. Professor Kitty Stewart of LSE emphasized that addressing child poverty effectively requires both support for employment and strong investment in social security to help families meet the additional costs of raising children.
Professor Ruth Patrick of CASE and the University of Glasgow added that the longstanding mantra that “work is the best route out of poverty” is insufficient, and social security must be central to any strategy aimed at improving children’s lives. Alex Beer of the Nuffield Foundation also noted that a comprehensive strategy should address the multiple barriers working families face, including health and care responsibilities, to ensure that every child has the opportunity for a secure and healthy upbringing.
This study, “Why We Won’t Turn the Tide on Child Poverty with Employment Alone,” will be published by LSE’s Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion and draws on research assessing the impact of the benefit cap and two-child limit on larger families. It underscores that reducing child poverty requires a combination of employment support and robust social protection measures.
