Tajikistan has made significant strides in reducing poverty over the past decade, according to a new World Bank report. The national poverty rate fell from 56% in 2010 to around 20% in 2024, while the middle class grew more than fourfold, from 8% to 33% of the population. Between 2021 and 2023, approximately 35% of households moved into the middle class, reflecting strong upward mobility aligned with the country’s National Development Strategy 2030, which aims to expand the middle class to 50% and reduce poverty to below 10%.
Despite these gains, the domestic labor market has not created enough jobs to sustain long-term economic growth. Progress has relied heavily on wage increases in existing positions and remittances from abroad rather than domestic job creation. Rural areas, in particular, face limited access to markets due to inadequate transport infrastructure and digital connectivity, which restricts labor mobility and economic participation. Labor force participation remains low, at 40% overall and only 21% for women, the lowest rates in Central Asia and among lower middle-income countries.
Education and skills gaps further constrain Tajikistan’s workforce, preventing many from accessing higher-productivity jobs domestically or internationally. In 2023, about 31% of school-age children were out of school, with dropouts linked to budget constraints, long travel distances, and parental education levels. Without targeted investments in education and workforce training, future generations may struggle to secure well-paying employment, perpetuating cycles of low-wage work.
The World Bank emphasizes that sustaining poverty reduction requires a shift from a migration-dependent model toward domestic job creation. Key recommendations include transforming agriculture by easing crop restrictions and promoting climate-resilient technologies, fostering labor-intensive private sector growth in agro-processing and services, expanding rural education and vocational training, improving infrastructure, and strengthening social protection programs such as the Targeted Social Assistance initiative. These measures aim to drive inclusive growth, reduce spatial inequalities, and build resilience for vulnerable households.
The report highlights the importance of technical and policy support in implementing these strategies. The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, with assistance from the World Bank and the Agency for Statistics, has established the Council for Middle-Class Expansion to monitor progress and inform policies promoting shared prosperity. Through ongoing financing and knowledge support, including 26 projects totaling $1.9 billion from the IDA and over $70 million in private sector investment through IFC, the World Bank Group continues to aid Tajikistan in sustaining economic growth and building a more resilient, inclusive economy.
