The roadmap to mobilise at least US$1.3 trillion a year in climate finance for developing countries by 2035 will depend heavily on strong coalitions among governments, multilateral development banks, private investors, and other financial institutions. The goal was agreed at COP29 in 2024 to support climate-resilient and low-emission development, but current finance flows remain far below the level needed.
In 2025, only around US$200 billion in climate finance was estimated to have reached developing countries, showing the scale of the gap. To help close it, Brazil and Azerbaijan, as the COP30 and COP29 presidencies, introduced the Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T. The roadmap identifies major areas for action, including concessional finance, debt sustainability, private investment, cost of capital, institutional capacity, and international rules and standards.
The roadmap has created a framework for discussion, but it still needs stronger political buy-in and clearer implementation pathways. Many governments had limited time to discuss the proposal when it was introduced, leaving questions about ownership, next steps, and how countries and institutions will work together to turn the roadmap into action.
The need for climate finance is increasing at a time when international funding faces serious pressure. Concessional finance is falling, global conflicts are raising costs, and political shifts are affecting climate commitments. At the same time, renewable energy and resilience investments are increasingly seen as important for energy security, financial stability, food systems, and conflict-sensitive development.
A major priority is defending the role of multilateral development banks. These banks are already important channels for international climate finance and have committed to providing US$120 billion per year in climate finance by 2030, along with US$65 billion in mobilised private finance. However, their climate mandates are facing political resistance, particularly from actors who argue that climate targets weaken market efficiency or distract from poverty reduction.
To keep the US$1.3 trillion goal within reach, shareholder countries will need to protect climate finance as a major part of multilateral development bank portfolios. They will also need to support larger overall lending capacity, including through capital increases, so that these institutions can expand climate-related investments while continuing to support development priorities.
Another major challenge is the decline in concessional bilateral finance, where funding flows directly from one country to another. Bilateral finance has historically made up around one-third of international climate finance, but it is now under pressure as some donor countries reduce climate and development funding. The article notes that the sharpest impact has come from the United States, while several European countries are also cutting back amid rising military costs and political changes.
Rebuilding bilateral climate finance will require sustained domestic and international pressure, along with coalitions of countries willing to resist the trend of declining development assistance. The article suggests that higher-income countries not traditionally seen as major climate finance providers, including China, Korea, and the United Arab Emirates, could play a larger role in future climate finance efforts.
The private sector will also be critical. The roadmap estimates that around half of the US$1.3 trillion will need to come from private businesses and financial institutions, requiring a major increase from current levels. However, private climate investment in emerging and developing economies will depend on stronger political, regulatory, and market conditions in both investor home countries and host countries.
Institutional investors manage large pools of capital and could contribute significantly to climate finance if barriers are addressed. These investors need clearer rules, lower perceived risks, supportive policy environments, and internal incentives that encourage investment beyond traditional markets and asset classes. A broader international coalition of private financial institutions could help build confidence, clarify barriers, and expand cross-border climate-aligned investment.
The article argues that the Roadmap to 1.3T is important because it connects climate negotiations with the practical world of finance. Now that international targets have been agreed, the real challenge is implementation. Achieving the goal will require coordinated action across public finance, development banks, private capital, debt reform, and institutional capacity building.
The economic case for climate finance is becoming stronger. Investments in renewable energy, resilient food systems, cleaner transport, sustainable infrastructure, and climate adaptation can deliver security, stability, and financial returns. In many cases, the costs of inaction are now greater than the costs of investment, making climate finance a matter of both risk management and economic opportunity.
Low-carbon markets are also becoming more attractive to investors. The article notes growing capital flows toward decarbonisation, renewable energy, sustainable infrastructure, and climate-resilient development, including in Brazil and other emerging economies. Clean industry investment is also gaining momentum, with investors committing to major commercial-scale projects despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
The central message is that the US$1.3 trillion climate finance goal cannot be achieved by one institution or funding source alone. It will require strong coalitions, political commitment, multilateral bank support, revived concessional finance, and large-scale private investment. The work will take a decade, but decisions made now will shape whether the world can successfully reach the 2035 climate finance target.
