June 2026 – Two recent political shifts in India and Bangladesh are reshaping the prospects for cooperation over shared river systems, particularly the Teesta and the Ganges. With new governments in Dhaka and West Bengal, long-standing stalemates may finally give way to renewed dialogue and treaty negotiations.
Bangladesh’s newly elected Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) government, formed in February 2026, has already signaled its intent to prioritize water-sharing agreements. India responded with gestures of goodwill, including restoring visa services and appointing veteran West Bengal politician Dinesh Trivedi as envoy to Dhaka. This move underscores Delhi’s intent to directly engage on sensitive bilateral issues and reset ties strained under the previous administration.
In May, India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) secured its first-ever victory in West Bengal, creating what the party describes as a “double-engine government” — alignment between state and central leadership. This political coherence coincides with the launch of a five-year River Basin Management (RBM) scheme, covering transboundary basins including the Teesta and Ganges. The scheme aims to promote sustainable basin-level planning, addressing irrigation, hydropower, and river interlinking — all sensitive issues for downstream Bangladesh.
The Teesta River, flowing from Sikkim through West Bengal into Bangladesh, has been at the center of a water-sharing dispute for decades. Agreements nearly materialized in 2011 and 2017, but were blocked by then Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who argued the river lacked sufficient water to share. A temporary accord in 1983 allocated 39% of flows to India and 36% to Bangladesh, but declining dry-season flows due to climate change, land use, and dam operations have since complicated negotiations. Bangladesh and India both recognize that reduced flows threaten dry-season paddy cultivation. The Joint River Commission has long emphasized “shared sacrifices,” but neither side has been willing to compromise. The new political alignment in India could open space for a joint scientific reassessment of the Teesta, especially after climate-related disasters like the 2023 glacial lake outburst floods.
The Ganges Water Sharing Treaty, signed in 1996, is set to expire at the end of 2026. Bangladesh is expected to seek renewal with stronger guarantees, including a minimum dry-season release of 40,000 cusecs (up from 35,000), longer treaty duration, and enhanced flood data sharing. BNP leaders have stated that improved bilateral relations with India will hinge on the treaty’s renewal. Bangladesh has historically criticized the treaty for lacking enforceable guarantees during peak irrigation demand. India’s controlled releases from the Farakka Barrage have also contributed to erosion in districts like Malda and Murshidabad. With BJP now in power in West Bengal, funding for anti-erosion works is more likely to align with central priorities, potentially easing downstream concerns.
India’s federal structure has often constrained river basin management, with state-level opposition blocking international agreements. The new alignment between central and state governments could enable stronger fiscal transfers, investment in less water-intensive agriculture, and institutionalization of the RBM scheme to address flooding, sedimentation, and erosion. For the first time, most states in the Ganges and Teesta basins are governed by the BJP or its allies, creating a rare opening for inter-state cooperation and transboundary negotiations. While challenges remain — from climate risks to domestic water demand — the political moment offers a chance to move beyond zero-sum disputes toward long-term environmental and livelihood-based cooperation.
