Global electricity demand is rising rapidly, driven in part by the expansion of AI data centers, making the availability of low-carbon power a critical factor for the energy transition. Solar and wind energy have expanded quickly in countries like China and the US over the past decade, yet deployment is uneven across regions. Some states and provinces have experienced strong growth, while others have stalled, even where natural resources are abundant, highlighting that national policies alone do not fully explain renewable scaling.
A detailed analysis of renewable energy development across all 50 US states and 31 Chinese provinces between 2014 and 2024 examined 70 variables and over 100,000 data points. The study identified several key drivers of renewable energy growth. Access to cheap land emerged as the most important factor, significantly influencing the economics of renewable projects in both countries. Existing solar and wind capacity also played a major role, with regions that had a head start benefiting from a compounding effect that attracts further investment. Reliable and well-invested grid infrastructure was another critical factor, though its impact differed: in the US, strong local grids supported growth, whereas in China, provinces with weaker local grids still scaled renewables effectively thanks to high-voltage transmission networks connecting inland production to demand centers.
Other factors varied between the two countries. In the US, growing electricity demand strengthened the business case for renewables, whereas in China, demand growth had little effect on scaling, as government investment and infrastructure planning ensured that electricity from rural areas could reach industrial hubs. Surprisingly, regulatory targets and reliance on external energy sources had minimal long-term impact on renewable deployment at the state or provincial level.
Case studies illustrate these dynamics in action. Texas tripled its renewable share from 10% to 30% in a decade by combining growing demand, low-cost land, excellent natural resources, and strategic grid investment, including 3,600 miles of transmission lines connecting resource-rich areas to high-demand regions. In China, Gansu province achieved the country’s second-highest growth despite only average solar and wind resources, benefiting from a strong existing renewable base, low land costs, and substantial utility infrastructure investment.
Understanding the factors that most strongly influence renewable energy scaling is essential for both companies and policymakers. Companies can target regions with affordable land, experienced renewable ecosystems, reliable grid infrastructure, and growing demand. Policymakers can reduce land costs and proactively invest in transmission networks to attract private investment. When public and private actions align to create favorable conditions for renewable projects, deployment accelerates, advancing the global energy transition efficiently and sustainably.
