Global trade and economic growth showed remarkable resilience in 2025, even amid heightened trade tensions and policy volatility. Supply chains adapted, and markets remained interconnected, though smaller and more vulnerable economies felt these pressures more acutely. While uncertainty continues in 2026 due to strategic rivalries and shifting policies, recent developments demonstrate that cooperation is still possible and has meaningful impacts.
The renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), alongside the HOPE and HELP arrangements for Haiti, highlights the importance of predictable trade relationships in supporting development. For 32 sub-Saharan African countries, including 21 least developed nations, AGOA underpins exports in textiles, agriculture, and light manufacturing. Similarly, HOPE and HELP sustain Haiti’s fragile export industries. Although these exports represent a modest portion of total U.S. imports, they are vital for employment, foreign exchange earnings, and fiscal stability, illustrating how predictable market access contributes to both commercial performance and macroeconomic resilience.
Stable trade arrangements also shape investment and planning. When governments can rely on predictable access to markets, firms are more willing to invest, and workers can pursue livelihoods with greater certainty. Large economies influence stability beyond their borders, and development-oriented trade policies strengthen the durability of the global trading system. A parallel example is the EU-MERCOSUR Association Agreement, which formalized a framework after extended negotiations, signaling that negotiated arrangements remain achievable even in contested environments.
For developing economies, consistent rules and credible expectations are crucial for diversification and value addition. Discretionary or case-specific policies increase compliance costs, deepen uncertainty, and constrain policy space. While larger economies may weather these challenges, more vulnerable nations face sharper consequences. Upcoming World Trade Organization meetings in March will address updates to the trade rulebook, emphasizing that reforms must reflect contemporary supply chains, digital trade, and evolving production patterns to maintain coherence.
Supply chains continue to adjust rather than collapse, and fragmentation remains a risk rather than an inevitability. Predictability in trade policy provides clarity for investment, diversification, and long-term planning. Clear and consistently applied rules give developing countries the space to expand opportunities and strengthen resilience, but these rules must also evolve alongside economic realities to remain effective.
The trajectory of the global trading system is not fixed. Governments have the capacity to reinforce negotiated rules and update them as circumstances change. Maintaining credibility does not mean resisting change but ensuring that reforms enhance coordination and restore confidence. In an interconnected world, stability relies on trade agreements that are credible, adaptable, and consistently applied, illustrating the broader significance of predictable and cooperative trade policy
