One year into Syria’s post-Assad transition, nearly three million refugees and internally displaced people have returned home, signaling cautious progress after more than a decade of conflict. However, United Nations officials warn that the country remains extremely fragile, with persistent threats from ISIL, unresolved sectarian and ethnic tensions, the presence of foreign fighters, and unsecured detention facilities continuing to undermine stability. Humanitarian needs remain severe, with only around a quarter of required winter assistance funding secured, leaving millions vulnerable amid extreme cold.
Regional dynamics are further compounding instability. UN officials have raised concerns that continued Israeli incursions in southern Syria undermine the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, increasing the risk of further destabilization at a critical moment in the transition.
Against this fragile backdrop, the situation in northern and northeastern Syria has sharply deteriorated in recent weeks. Efforts at dialogue and mediation between the Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces have failed to prevent renewed violence. A recent round of talks did not advance implementation of a March 2025 agreement intended to integrate the SDF into state institutions, and clashes soon erupted in SDF-controlled neighborhoods of Aleppo, forcing tens of thousands of civilians to flee. Although many have since begun returning, dozens were killed, hundreds injured, and others remain missing.
A ceasefire and a “full integration agreement” announced on 18 January with mediation by the United States and other partners quickly faltered. Fighting resumed after talks broke down the following day, with clashes reported in parts of Al-Hasakeh governorate and around Ayn al-Arab (Kobane). UN officials have urged all sides to adhere immediately to the ceasefire and to implement the agreement in a spirit of compromise, warning that continued violence could trigger an alarming humanitarian and protection crisis. While recent government decrees recognizing the linguistic, cultural, and citizenship rights of Syrian Kurds were described as encouraging, UN officials stressed that inclusive political processes are essential to build trust and national cohesion.
These political tensions are unfolding amid immense humanitarian strain. Recent fighting has displaced tens of thousands of people in Aleppo and triggered new waves of displacement across Ar-Raqqa, Deir ez-Zor, and Al-Hasakeh governorates. As of mid-January, more than 13,000 people had fled Ar-Raqqa alone, many sheltering in overcrowded collective centers. Access to clean water has been disrupted, some hospitals have closed, schools have been affected, and damaged roads, unexploded ordnance, and winter storms are hampering aid delivery.
Displaced families are enduring harsh winter conditions, with urgent needs for shelter, food, and heating. Heavy snow and extreme cold have affected nearly 160,000 people living in camps, damaging shelters and contributing to the deaths of two infants. Despite access challenges, UN agencies and partners continue to provide food, shelter, medical supplies, and protection services, supported by emergency funding and the establishment of reception centers in Al-Hasakeh and Qamishli. UN officials emphasized that further progress depends on sustained humanitarian funding, increased recovery and development investment, and active diplomacy to prevent renewed violence and protect civilians.
Meanwhile, UN teams were unable to access Al Hol camp in northeastern Syria following its takeover by Syrian authorities amid reports of looting and fires. Security concerns prevented UNHCR and UNICEF staff from entering the camp, although discussions with government representatives took place on site. Authorities have expressed willingness to support continued life-saving operations, while the UN stressed that any transfer of detention facilities holding suspected ISIL members must be carried out in an orderly manner and in line with international standards. Al Hol camp continues to house tens of thousands of people, many of them women and children, and remains marked by insecurity, humanitarian needs, and limited access for aid agencies.
