A new study by The Future of Energy, titled “Lessons Learned from 12 Years of Mini-Grid Results-Based Financing in Africa,” reveals crucial insights and future recommendations for scaling up energy access across the continent through more effective financing mechanisms.
Despite collective commitments exceeding EUR 250 million for mini-grid development and ambitious goals to attract private investment, current results-based financing (RBF) approaches have not yet delivered results at the scale or pace needed to achieve universal energy access by 2030. As of early 2025, only 14 percent of the $9.1 billion committed to mini-grid electrification in Africa had been disbursed, reflecting persistent challenges in implementation.
Mini-grids are widely recognized as one of the most cost-effective and scalable energy solutions for rural Africa, with the potential to provide electricity to around 380 million people by 2030. However, delays, operational inefficiencies, and misaligned incentives have slowed progress, leaving millions of communities still without access to reliable power.
According to Aleksandra Reskalenko, Programme Manager at Nefco, strengthening results-based financing for mini-grid projects is essential for building investor confidence and scaling up productive electricity use. She emphasizes that success depends not only on subsidies but also on establishing clear regulations, ensuring timely verification and payments, and creating reliable incentives that attract private capital to underserved markets.
Since 2013, at least thirteen RBF programmes have been launched across Africa, including the Beyond the Grid Fund for Africa (BGFA), to accelerate mini-grid installations. While these programmes have played a catalytic role in developing the sector, their real-world impact has been constrained by delays, under-disbursement, and limited alignment with market realities.
André Troost, Director of Consulting at The Future of Energy, highlighted that results-based financing can be a powerful tool for mini-grid development if adapted to local conditions. He explained that streamlined disbursement processes, digital verification systems, and integration with complementary support mechanisms could transform RBFs from slow-moving grant mechanisms into strategic accelerators for energy access.
The study also found that results-based financing programmes are most effective when they operate in conjunction with guarantees, technical assistance, and pre-financing tools that help mobilize capital and ensure sustainability. It warns that incentive structures focused solely on the number of connections risk undermining long-term viability. Instead, programmes should prioritize energy consumption and financial sustainability to encourage the productive use of electricity and ensure the stability of mini-grid operations.
Kari Hämekoski, Fund Manager of BGFA and Senior Programme Manager at Nefco, stressed that focusing on energy consumption is crucial for the long-term success of mini-grids. While capacity-based subsidy schemes may be necessary in the early stages, shifting towards consumption-based incentives is key to supporting lasting development.
The study underscores that results-based financing remains a suitable support instrument for the mini-grid sector, but it must be designed with greater pragmatism and responsiveness. Future programmes should aim for predictable, on-time disbursement and incorporate digital tools to streamline operations. They should also be developed in close coordination with national governments, donors, and other financing initiatives to avoid working in isolation.
With less than five years remaining to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 7—universal access to affordable, reliable, and modern energy—the report urges immediate action. Results-based financing programmes must evolve from bureaucratic grant systems into agile and strategic funding mechanisms capable of driving large-scale energy access.
By October 2025, the Beyond the Grid Fund for Africa had contracted six mini-grid service providers across four Sub-Saharan African countries, aiming to deploy more than 40 mini-grid sites by 2029. Once fully implemented, these projects are expected to provide clean energy access to approximately 8.7 million people in rural areas of Burkina Faso, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia, Mozambique, Uganda, and Zambia.
Commissioned by Nefco in early 2025, the study was developed for policymakers, donors, and private-sector actors working to expand energy access in Africa. It evaluates existing results-based financing programmes, examines mini-grid business models, and analyses policy frameworks across multiple African countries. The report’s findings serve as a call to action for governments and investors to accelerate the deployment of sustainable mini-grids and ensure that the lessons learned over the past decade are translated into meaningful progress for millions still living without electricity.
