Rwanda’s threat to withdraw its troops from Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province highlights the fragility of Mozambique’s security strategy, which is heavily dependent on natural resources and external support. Senior Rwandan officials warned on 14 March that their forces could pull out if sustainable international funding is not secured, coinciding with Mozambican President Daniel Chapo’s visit to Brussels. This follows reports that the European Union (EU) would not extend funding for Rwandan troops beyond May, despite previous financial support of around US$46 million since 2022, covering roughly 17% of Rwanda’s deployment costs.
Rwanda’s presence in Cabo Delgado is closely tied to its political, regional security, and economic interests. The country initially sent approximately 1,000 troops in 2021 to support Mozambican forces against insurgents who had seized key towns and disrupted major LNG projects. Over time, Rwanda increased its deployment to more than 4,000 troops, primarily protecting strategic towns and energy infrastructure. These operations enabled TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil to resume LNG production, securing European energy interests, particularly in the wake of disruptions in Russian and Qatari gas supplies.
The deployment also strengthens Rwanda’s regional influence and economic leverage. Agreements with Mozambique, including a 2025 Status of Forces Agreement and a memorandum of understanding on investment and trade, have facilitated Rwandan-linked firms’ entry into gas-related projects in Cabo Delgado. Militarily, the deployment positions Rwanda as a credible regional security provider while deflecting scrutiny over its involvement in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), where it has faced US sanctions for supporting the M23 rebellion. Threats to withdraw troops appear partly designed to pressure the US and EU on funding and sanctions, rather than reflect a genuine intention to leave.
Mozambique remains heavily reliant on foreign security forces, revealing significant shortcomings in its domestic military capabilities, including logistical weaknesses, low morale, delayed salaries, and accusations of abuses against civilians. Insurgents continue to pose a lethal threat, having killed over 6,500 people since 2017, and the country cannot independently secure critical gas infrastructure or maintain stability. The reliance on external forces highlights the limitations of a resource-driven security strategy, which prioritizes protecting energy assets over addressing local socio-economic grievances that fuel the insurgency.
The international response, particularly from the EU and US, illustrates the transactional nature of foreign engagement. While both actors are invested in securing strategic energy infrastructure, their involvement does not tackle underlying structural challenges such as political exclusion and economic marginalization that drive local recruitment into insurgencies. Continued dependence on Rwanda’s forces may provide short-term stability but perpetuates insecurity, leaving Mozambique vulnerable to unpredictable risks arising from disputes among external actors and unresolved domestic grievances.
Overall, the situation in Cabo Delgado underscores that Mozambique’s security approach is unsustainable without significant domestic capacity-building, structural reforms, and consistent international support. Rwanda’s threat to withdraw highlights the fragility of external dependency, while illustrating the complex interplay of geopolitical, economic, and local factors shaping security in the region.
