Madagascar’s recent political trajectory highlights a shift from a youth-driven demand for reform to increasing military control and repression. In September, widespread protests led by the Gen Z Madagascar movement erupted over worsening living conditions, corruption, and governance failures. Public outrage intensified following revelations about President Andry Rajoelina’s dual citizenship, which many saw as undermining national sovereignty. The protests ultimately led to a military takeover in October, with Colonel Michael Randrianirina assuming leadership and promising democratic reforms and elections within two years.
However, six months after the takeover, the initial promise of change has largely failed to materialize. Instead of addressing protesters’ grievances, the junta has focused on consolidating power. Reports indicate a growing pattern of repression, including arbitrary arrests, unlawful searches, and prolonged detentions under broadly defined national security charges. Efforts to investigate the killing and injury of protesters during the uprising have been limited, raising concerns about accountability and justice.
The political environment has also become increasingly exclusionary. Despite the central role played by youth and civil society in initiating the protests, these groups have been largely sidelined in governance and reform processes. The junta has made extensive executive appointments without consultation and pushed through key policy decisions, including the national budget, without meaningful public participation. Women and marginalized groups face additional barriers, with leadership structures dominated by male military figures and limited representation in decision-making spaces.
Economic priorities under the new administration appear to mirror those of the previous regime. While public dissatisfaction originally stemmed from poor service delivery, the current budget continues to allocate significant resources to administrative costs, salaries, and executive spending, with limited investment in essential services such as healthcare, education, water, and electricity. This has further deepened public frustration, particularly among the youth who had hoped for systemic change.
The junta’s governance approach is reinforced by its international alignments and political messaging, which emphasize authority, control, and national sovereignty. Engagements with global partners on issues such as migration, energy extraction, and security cooperation reflect a broader strategy that prioritizes state power over inclusive development. Meanwhile, the lack of transparency and limited access to information have weakened the ability of civil society to hold authorities accountable.
Although regional and international organizations are focusing on elections scheduled for 2027 as a pathway back to civilian rule, concerns remain that these elections may not lead to genuine democratic transition. Without addressing ongoing repression, ensuring accountability, and enabling inclusive participation in reforms, there is a growing risk that the electoral process could simply legitimize continued authoritarian rule under a civilian framework.
