In February 2026, the FAO Food Price Index rose for the first time in five months, averaging 125.3 points, up 0.9 percent from January, though still 1.0 percent below its level a year earlier. The increase was driven by higher prices for wheat, most vegetable oils, and several meat types, which outweighed declines in cheese and sugar prices.
The FAO Cereal Price Index climbed 1.1 percent, primarily due to rising wheat prices caused by frost in parts of Europe and the United States and ongoing logistical disruptions in the Russian Federation and the Black Sea region. Coarse grains also saw modest gains, while rice prices edged up 0.4 percent due to steady demand for basmati and Japonica varieties.
Vegetable oil prices surged 3.3 percent to their highest level since June 2022, with palm and soyoil prices rising amid strong global demand and expectations of supportive biofuel policies in the United States. Rapeseed oil prices rebounded, whereas sunflower oil prices eased slightly due to increased Argentine exports.
Meat prices increased 0.8 percent, led by record ovine meat prices and rising bovine meat prices driven by strong import demand from China and the United States. Pig and poultry meat prices rose marginally. Dairy prices fell 1.2 percent, largely due to lower cheese prices, though skim and whole milk powder quotations rose and butter prices saw their first monthly increase since June 2025. Sugar prices declined 4.1 percent from January, reflecting expectations of abundant global supply.
FAO forecasts for 2026 point to a likely 3 percent drop in global wheat production to around 810 million tonnes, mainly due to reduced sowings in the EU, the United States, and the Russian Federation in response to softer prices. India, Pakistan, and China are expected to see generally favorable wheat output, with record sowings in India supported by government incentives.
Maize production in the Southern Hemisphere is projected to be above average, with larger plantings and favorable weather in Argentina, Brazil, and South Africa, though South Africa’s yields may fall slightly due to irregular weather. FAO revised 2025 global cereal production upwards to a record 3,029 million tonnes, a 5.6 percent increase from the previous year, while cereal utilization is projected to reach a record 2,943 million tonnes. Global cereal stocks are expected to rise to 940.5 million tonnes, yielding a comfortable stocks-to-use ratio of 31.9 percent. World cereal trade for the 2025/26 marketing year is forecast at 501.7 million tonnes, a 3.5 percent increase year-on-year.
FAO also highlighted that 41 countries, mostly in Africa, require external food assistance due to conflicts, insecurity, and weather-related shocks. Among the 44 Low-Income Food Deficit Countries, cereal production is expected to fall by 1.0 percent in 2025/26, while utilization may rise by 1.5 percent, increasing import needs to 55.7 million tonnes.
