The International Rescue Committee (IRC) has launched its 2026 Emergency Watchlist for Africa, a tool that uses 74 quantitative and qualitative indicators, along with expert insights, to anticipate which crises are most likely to deteriorate. Since its inception in 2014, the Watchlist has correctly identified 85 to 95 percent of countries facing worsening humanitarian crises. Today, the scale of need is unprecedented, with forcibly displaced populations and people in humanitarian need having more than doubled since the first Watchlist, while global humanitarian aid has halved. The IRC highlights that this is occurring amid a rapidly shifting global order, characterized by geopolitical competition, fragmentation, and a weakening rules-based international system—a context it calls the “New World Disorder.”
Africa remains central to the IRC’s focus. Operating in 16 countries with over 85 field offices and nearly 3,800 staff, the organization observes both immense challenges and potential. The continent hosts a growing working-age population, high entrepreneurial activity, and forecasted GDP growth above global averages, yet many countries face rising public debt, limited fiscal space, and stretched social services. For the seventh consecutive year, more than half of the countries on the Watchlist are in Africa, with 11 nations representing just 8 percent of the global population but a third of the world’s displaced people, extreme poverty, and humanitarian needs.
The Watchlist also sets out solutions. It calls for reforming the aid system to scale proven interventions such as vaccination programs, simplified malnutrition treatment, and cash assistance; holding perpetrators of violence accountable to reduce civilian harm; and reinvesting in diplomacy and peacemaking to prevent and resolve crises. The IRC emphasizes that early, targeted action—political engagement, prevention, and coordinated aid—is far more effective and humane than delayed responses. The 2026 Watchlist serves not merely as a forecast of crisis, but as a blueprint for action, identifying where humanitarian risks are escalating and where interventions can save lives, protect communities, and mitigate long-term impacts.
