California’s Net Zero emission goals, championed by Governor Gavin Newsom and other state leaders, face a fundamental limitation: wind turbines and solar panels generate electricity only. While renewable electricity is critical, hydrocarbons remain essential for physical mobility, powering sectors such as trucking, mining, construction, aviation, maritime trade, and military operations. Liquid fuels provide unmatched energy density, storability, and reliability, and electrification has yet to offer credible substitutes for these domains, particularly under conditions of conflict, extreme demand, or supply disruptions. This underscores the need for an “all of the above” energy approach.
Renewable electricity is structurally narrow and intermittent. Wind and solar depend on weather, geography, and extensive material inputs, many of which are sourced from fossil fuels. Storage technologies remain expensive, limited in scale, and technologically immature compared with the demands of modern energy systems. While important, these sources cannot currently replace the full spectrum of energy needs, including fuels and industrial feedstocks derived from hydrocarbons.
California’s healthcare, transportation, national security, and industrial sectors rely on thousands of products derived from petrochemicals. Policies that emphasize electric vehicles (EVs) or renewable electricity address only a fraction of fossil fuel use, neglecting the broader supply chain of more than 6,000 products made from oil, coal, or natural gas. Even EVs themselves are largely constructed from oil-based products, including tires, electronics, wiring, and insulation. No current renewable technology can replicate these essential materials or support global transportation systems such as ships, aircraft, and military fleets.
California is increasingly dependent on imported crude oil. Domestic production is declining due to restrictions on drilling permits, forcing reliance on foreign sources, which now account for over 70% of total consumption, up from 5% in 1992. Refinery capacity is also decreasing, with closures such as the Phillips 66 Los Angeles Refinery and planned shutdowns like the Valero Benicia Refinery, exacerbating the state’s vulnerability. Geographic constraints, including the lack of pipelines over the Sierra Nevada, further isolate California from the broader U.S. crude oil infrastructure.
The state’s transportation fuel demands are immense. Its ports, including Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Oakland, support massive shipping operations requiring diesel and bunker fuels. California consumes 13 million gallons of jet fuel daily across 145 airports, 42 million gallons of gasoline for 30 million vehicles, and 10 million gallons of diesel to sustain trucking logistics. These demands highlight the fragility of the energy infrastructure if crude oil supplies are disrupted.
California’s decades-long push to transition away from fossil fuels has often overlooked the broader supply chain implications. Policies have constrained oil production and refining without addressing the continuing growth in demand for the thousands of petroleum-derived products necessary to sustain society. Wind and solar generation cannot replace these fuels and products, and the state risks running out of crude oil before viable alternatives are available.
Electricity generation itself is dependent on products made from oil derivatives, including infrastructure for hydro, coal, natural gas, nuclear, wind, and solar energy. Without crude oil, California cannot meet its fuel and material demands for ports, aviation, road transport, and industrial sectors. The state’s energy future remains fragile, with policymakers lacking clear plans for replacing crude oil while maintaining the supply chain for essential products.
Meanwhile, global competitors such as China are expanding refinery capacity, positioning themselves to meet future energy and material demands. California has the opportunity to develop balanced, pragmatic strategies that secure affordable and reliable energy for residents while addressing environmental and national security concerns. The state’s energy policies must integrate clarity, wisdom, and an “all of the above” approach to ensure sustainable and resilient infrastructure.
