Global poverty trends have been significantly affected by a series of shocks and uneven recoveries over the past five years. Economic pressures from the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation, conflict, and extreme weather have slowed progress in reducing poverty. While some countries rebounded quickly after the pandemic, others struggled to improve their economic conditions. The World Bank’s latest Macro Poverty Outlook (MPO) provides insights into recent and projected poverty trends for 115 low- and middle-income countries, combining household survey data, country-level growth and inflation forecasts, social assistance coverage, and microsimulation models.
Since 2021, poverty has declined in most countries, but progress is uneven. Nations experiencing fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) face the steepest challenges. While three out of four countries have seen poverty reduction between 2021 and 2024, substantial variation exists. Europe and Central Asia, East Asia and the Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean have recorded significant poverty declines, largely driven by positive economic growth, which was observed in 81% of countries in 2024 and 86% on average between 2021 and 2024.
The picture is more mixed in low-income countries and regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAAP). About half of low-income countries, half of MENAAP countries, and 40% of Sub-Saharan African countries experienced rising poverty during this period. FCV countries faced the worst outcomes, with only one-third showing improvements in poverty reduction.
Looking ahead to 2025, 80% of countries are projected to experience further poverty declines, which would mark the largest share of countries with falling poverty in a decade. This improvement extends to low-income and FCV countries, where 75% and 70% of nations are expected to see reductions in poverty rates. Household welfare gains are anticipated as economic growth translates into increased income for households, with 85% of countries projected to experience real GDP growth in 2025.
In the ten countries with the highest numbers of people living in poverty, nine are expected to see positive GDP growth in 2025, with Mozambique as the exception. However, while overall trends signal progress, the magnitude of poverty reduction remains limited in low-income and FCV countries, and persistent challenges continue to hinder rapid progress.
These projections come with important caveats: future outcomes depend on how countries navigate inflation, growth, debt, climate risks, and conflict. Unforeseen economic shocks can reverse gains in poverty reduction, highlighting the fragility of progress. At the current pace, global efforts to eradicate extreme poverty remain slow, and significant work will be needed in the coming decades to achieve this goal.
