Intermediary cities are emerging as key drivers of Africa’s urban future, with cities such as Nakuru and Kiambu in Kenya and Beira and Quelimane in Mozambique experiencing rapid population growth and spatial expansion. These cities play an increasingly important role in national economies and service provision, yet their development trajectories are still being shaped. Unlike large metropolitan areas where car dependency and high emissions are already entrenched, intermediary cities retain a critical opportunity to avoid carbon-intensive and socially unequal urban models by adopting more sustainable, inclusive and climate-resilient pathways early on.
The report builds on the OECD’s systems innovation methodology for net-zero transitions, adapting it to the realities of intermediary cities, and draws on UN-Habitat’s experience with challenge-driven urban innovation. Its purpose is to help local governments better understand current urban and transport dynamics, identify the systemic drivers of unsustainable outcomes and co-design strategies that support long-term transformation. Through a mix of analytical tools and participatory approaches, the study generates practical insights for policymakers, planners and development partners working in rapidly urbanising contexts.
Urbanisation trends in Kenya and Mozambique are accelerating sharply. Kenya’s urban population is projected to grow by nearly 80% between 2020 and 2050, while Mozambique’s urban built-up area is expected to more than triple. In both countries, however, urban growth is often uncoordinated, reinforcing car dependency and making infrastructure and service delivery increasingly costly. Rising reliance on informal motorised transport has contributed to congestion and higher emissions, creating a risk that carbon-intensive and inefficient patterns become locked in if timely action is not taken.
Through participatory workshops, local stakeholders were invited to envision their cities in 2050 under a model of inclusive and sustainable development. Despite differences in context, these visions converged around similar aspirations: walkable neighbourhoods, reliable and accessible public transport, streets that function as shared public spaces, and cleaner, safer urban environments. Green areas, improved air quality and vibrant public life were seen as central to a better urban future.
To understand the gap between these long-term visions and present realities, the study applied systems thinking tools to examine the forces shaping urban development. In Nakuru and Kiambu, transport investment continues to prioritise car-oriented infrastructure even though most daily trips are made on foot or through informal services, reinforcing sprawl, congestion and rising emissions. In Beira, wide central roads offer potential for inclusive mobility but are increasingly dominated by private vehicles, while informal settlements and leapfrogging development patterns contribute to sprawl. Quelimane has maintained a strong cycling culture, particularly through taxi bikes, but this low-emission system is increasingly threatened by growing motorisation, longer travel distances and limited protective infrastructure. Across all four cities, weak integration between land use and transport planning and limited institutional co-ordination exacerbate these challenges.
Building on this diagnosis, the report identifies key structural drivers of unsustainable outcomes and supports cities in co-designing practical responses. A central element of this process was the identification of high-leverage goals, defined as strategic shifts capable of triggering broader system change. While tailored to local contexts, these goals often focused on reclaiming street space for people, linking housing and transport planning, and improving public and shared mobility. Stakeholders also developed initial policy ideas and indicators to support these priorities and guide locally driven action.
The analysis highlights several priority areas for action. Cities need to rebalance road and public space allocation away from private vehicles and towards walking, cycling and shared transport, particularly given that non-motorised modes already dominate daily travel. Urban development should be guided by accessibility rather than distance, promoting compact, mixed-use growth and better co-ordination between housing and transport investment. Expanding and improving sustainable mobility options, including better integration and regulation of informal services and the development of inclusive public transport systems, is essential for meeting growing demand while reducing emissions. Strengthening governance, institutional alignment and participatory planning processes is also critical to delivering coherent and legitimate urban mobility strategies.
Finally, the report underscores the importance of monitoring, learning and adaptation. By developing indicators linked to long-term visions, cities can track progress, adjust policies as conditions evolve and ensure investments contribute to broader climate and development goals. Nakuru, Kiambu, Beira and Quelimane illustrate how intermediary cities can shape alternative urban futures by moving beyond business-as-usual approaches and embracing vision-led, systems-based strategies. Achieving this transition will require sustained commitment, stronger co-ordination and the willingness to challenge entrenched development models.
