The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has warned that unmanaged artificial intelligence (AI) could exacerbate global inequalities by widening gaps in economic performance, human capabilities, and governance systems. The report, The Next Great Divergence: Why AI May Widen Inequality Between Countries, emphasizes that while AI offers new development opportunities, countries enter this transition from highly uneven starting points. Without strong, inclusive policy action, these disparities could reverse decades of narrowing development gaps.
Asia and the Pacific, home to over 55% of the world’s population, is central to the AI transition. The region now hosts more than half of global AI users and is rapidly expanding its innovation footprint, including China’s dominance in AI patents and the growth of thousands of AI startups across six economies. AI could boost annual GDP growth by around two percentage points and increase productivity by up to five percent in sectors such as health and finance, with ASEAN economies potentially gaining nearly $1 trillion in GDP over the next decade. However, millions of jobs, especially those held by women and young people, face automation risks if ethical and inclusive governance principles are not applied.
Thailand exemplifies the disparity between AI readiness and broader human development. Ranked 52nd globally in AI preparedness and third in ASEAN, Thailand shows strong digital foundations. Yet it ranks 76th on the Human Development Index, signaling that while the country may lead digitally, its population may not fully benefit from AI or be protected from disruptions. UNDP experts emphasize the need for inclusive education, digital skills development, and protective systems to ensure AI supports a fair and sustainable future.
For decades, lower-income countries had gradually closed development gaps through technology, trade, and investment, achieving progress in health, education, and income. The report cautions that AI, without deliberate policies, could erode these convergence gains. Digital readiness across Asia-Pacific varies, with countries like Singapore, South Korea, and China investing heavily in AI infrastructure and skills, while others struggle with foundational digital access and literacy. Insufficient infrastructure, computing power, and governance capacity not only limit AI benefits but also increase risks such as job displacement, data exclusion, and environmental pressures.
The report highlights the link between AI readiness and basic data skills. Only about 25% of urban residents and fewer than 20% in rural areas can perform basic spreadsheet tasks, essential for data analysis. In low-income countries, only around 5% of people use AI tools. Women and young people are especially vulnerable, as jobs they hold are more exposed to automation, threatening early-career opportunities.
Despite these risks, AI is already enhancing governance and public services. Bangkok’s Traffy Fondue platform has processed nearly 600,000 citizen reports, improving municipal responses, while Singapore’s Moments of Life service has streamlined documentation for new parents. In Beijing, digital twins support urban planning and flood management. These examples demonstrate AI’s potential to improve public administration and service delivery.
However, comprehensive AI regulations remain limited. By 2027, over 40% of global AI-related data breaches may result from generative AI misuse, highlighting the urgent need for robust governance frameworks. Philip Schellekens, UNDP Chief Economist for Asia and the Pacific, stressed that the key divide in the AI era is capability: countries investing in skills, computing power, and sound governance will prosper, while others risk falling behind. The report underscores that proactive policies can transform AI from a source of inequality into a driver of shared progress.
