Myanmar’s economy shows moderate signs of recovery despite significant challenges, according to the latest World Bank Myanmar Economic Monitor. The country continues to grapple with the effects of the March 2025 earthquake, ongoing conflict, and long-standing structural issues. Firms operated at higher capacity in October 2025 compared to earlier months, while the kyat steadily appreciated following a sharp depreciation last year. Although inflation has eased, prices remain high, continuing to strain household budgets. Freight transport volumes improved over the six months to September 2025, indicating a partial easing of earthquake-related supply disruptions.
The report projects that real GDP will contract by 2.0 percent in the fiscal year ending March 2026, an upward revision from the previous estimate of -2.5 percent. A moderate rebound of 3 percent is expected in FY2026/27, driven primarily by post-earthquake reconstruction and targeted assistance for affected populations. Inflation is anticipated to remain above 20 percent in the near term, while fiscal pressures persist, with the deficit projected at 5 percent of GDP and public debt remaining above 60 percent due to increased domestic borrowing and reconstruction spending.
The agrifood sector remains a resilient driver of economic activity and employment, contributing 27 percent of gross value-added and 22 percent of manufacturing sector jobs despite frequent shocks, including flooding and earthquakes. Strengthening agrifood value chains is seen as crucial for enhancing resilience and supporting jobs. Key interventions focus on improving producer–processor linkages, upgrading storage and logistics infrastructure, and facilitating access to modern processing technologies, helping to stabilize livelihoods and support broader economic recovery.
