The peace process in South Sudan is approaching a critical juncture, with core commitments under the 2018 Revitalised Peace Agreement stalling or reversing. The agreement, designed to prevent a return to civil war, is under strain as its power-sharing and security provisions weaken. Political competition ahead of the December 2026 elections threatens to spark renewed violence rather than consolidate peace, and the conflict in neighbouring Sudan has worsened the situation by displacing over 1.2 million people into South Sudan, placing further pressure on already limited resources.
Political tensions within the country are deepening as reshuffles weaken inclusive governance structures central to the peace agreement. The detention and trial of opposition leaders have increased polarization, and progress on key transitional tasks—such as security sector reform, constitution-making, and election planning—remains stalled. Regional mechanisms have been ineffective in reducing local tensions, raising concerns that the inclusivity principle underpinning the agreement is being sacrificed.
Violence continues to escalate across the country, with ceasefire violations and clashes reported in Jonglei, Unity, and Upper Nile states. Aerial bombardments, riverine operations, ambushes, and retaliatory attacks have led to civilian casualties, displacement, and loss of livelihoods. Observers warn that South Sudan exhibits clear signs of potentially relapsing into full-scale conflict.
Humanitarian conditions are deteriorating, with 7.5 million people facing acute food insecurity amid ongoing flooding, displacement, and violence. Women and girls are particularly at risk, with widespread gender-based violence—including rape, abduction, and forced marriage—reported. Despite leading local peacebuilding efforts, women remain largely excluded from national political processes, and the agreed 35 per cent representation quota has not been met.
UN officials have called for urgent action, emphasizing the need for an immediate cessation of hostilities, renewed political dialogue, protection of civilians, and sustained support for the UN peacekeeping mission, UNMISS. Without decisive intervention, the risk of renewed war looms large, threatening civilians who have historically borne the heaviest burden of conflict.
